Top Finance Substacks

Going With the Flow

London to Brussels: Hold our beer.

Tue Sep 29, 5:02 AM ET#3 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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“You’re running to be prime minister — it’s hard to be the person who makes jokes.” – Ed Miliband Several months ago, we took to these pages to articulate an admittedly long-shot call. After foreseeing Mark Carney’s 180-degree flip on all things climate change, we postulated that perhaps Great Britain, Canada’s historical mothership, might also be ready to discard the geopolitical deadweight of…

Sector Deep Dive: North American Midstream

Pro Tier: September 2026 Doom Zoom

Sat Sep 26, 6:20 AM ET#3 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Hello, Doomberg Pro members! Within the oil and gas industry thrives a powerful segment of participants whose investments in vital infrastructure enable ever-burgeoning development in the geographies they touch. They connect producers to users with a broad range of necessary specializations. The security of their future is tied to volumes moved in relati… Read more

Escalation Clauses

Heads nobody wins, tails Europe loses.

Tue Sep 22, 5:02 AM ET#3 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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“I think gas prices are a conspiracy.” – Tom Braidwood On Sunday, a world chronically short of diesel woke up to the happy news that Ukraine—undoubtedly with the full support of those who currently occupy positions of power across Europe and Great Britain, and perhaps even the US—had caused significant damage at the Gazpromneft Moscow Refinery, a facility capable of handling 245,000 barrels per…

Coming to America

Lateral musings ahead of Xi Jinping’s official state visit.

Fri Sep 18, 5:02 AM ET#3 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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“War should never be entered upon until every agency of peace has failed.” – William McKinley There’s no sugarcoating the ominous turn of events that occurred in the Middle East over the past two weeks. The rapid advance of the Houthis across the Red Sea coast, the serious damage sustained by the newly all-important East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia, and continuing signs of an imminent global…

Value Trap

The downside of practically free natural gas.

Wed Sep 16, 5:00 AM ET#3 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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“Thankfully, there’s no rehab for success.” – Lil Wayne In early July of 2025, the government of Angola made a fateful decision to raise diesel prices nationwide by one-third, part of a years-long campaign to phase out costly fuel subsidies. A three-day strike by minibus and taxi drivers spiraled into nationwide bouts of violent unrest.

Apricity or Bust

The most inexcusable energy crisis ever.

Sat Sep 12, 5:00 AM ET#3 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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“If the world seems cold to you, kindle fires to warm it.” – Lucy Larcom Watching the parade of negative-charisma European elites cascade toward their inevitable political demise would be entertaining, were it not certain that their equally incompetent replacements would spawn into place from a seemingly endless line of empty suits, like so many Pez popping out of identical plastic dispensers.

10/6/26 Recap

by James BulltardTue Oct 6, 10:50 AM ET#4 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SPY just broke out to new highs clearing the 780 level for the first time today. We were in a really tight flag for months and while we had a few scary moments along the way, look back at the chart below, we never broke the 100 day, just one test of it. We had just 3 closes below the 50 day, yellow line, and that is where charts never lie to you.

10/5/26 Recap

by James BulltardMon Oct 5, 11:12 AM ET#4 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SPY remains in this incredibly tight flag over all the key moving averages. This needs to break this multi month trend of lower highs and push over 775 for us to really get some traction, we’re very close, just .5% away. We have earnings season kicking off in a week and the buildup is strong into it.

10/2/26 Recap

by James BulltardFri Oct 2, 11:10 AM ET#4 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SPY gapped up nicely after the awful jobs number, we’re back in the bad news is good news era because it cause a tiny selloff in rates. What matters more is you can see this is still a series of lower highs going back to early August. We really need to get over 775 and close there for bulls to be in a good spot. If we turn lower from here, this was all just a meaningless bounce higher.

10/1/26 Recap

by James BulltardThu Oct 1, 10:56 AM ET#4 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SPY gapped up into the underside of the 21 ema and rejected it turning lower and now below the 50 day again. This is not good at all. Rates continue to rise and pressure everything. Tomorrow morning we have a big jobs report that will decide our next big move, but you have a right to be cautious here because any close below the 50 day is worrisome and it appears we may have one today.

9/30/26 Recap

by James BulltardWed Sep 30, 11:19 AM ET#4 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SPY turned back up after a strong GDP print this morning into quarter end. We reclaimed the 21 ema today after a close below there yesterday. This market continues to be a constant narrative change on a daily basis and until we get out of this range, either over 779.37 or below 750, this is just going to be alot of choppiness.

9/29/26 Recap

by James BulltardTue Sep 29, 11:21 AM ET#4 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SPY is breaking below the 21 ema here. You could say we’re in a small bull flag here the last 7 sessions within a larger bull flag as we are still over the 50 day but this market simply cannot go up until rates cool off. This move in rates is an all timer and it is certainly pressuring President Trump on what happens with Iran.

TMTB Podcast Intel: AWS (AMZN) CEO Matt Garman on Rationing GPUs, Bernstein’s Rasgon, Skydance’s (SKYD) Ellison and Kreiz on Synergies and Delevering, OpenAI’s Sottiaux, Cloudflare (NET) CEO on Agents

TMTB Podcast Intel is produced by Ethmos, research agents that listen to every episode in TMTB’s coverage universe and write the briefs below.

by EthmosThu Oct 8, 4:14 PM ET#5 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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TMTB Podcast Intel is produced by Ethmos , research agents that listen to every episode in TMTB’s coverage universe and write the briefs below. Try Ethmos — 14 days free, then 25% off your first month for TMTB readers. Today’s Essential Episodes: AWS CEO Matt Garman on Rationing Scarce GPUs for Startups, Trainium as an Inference Chip and Amazon’s $220B Capex The a16z Show, with a16z’s Raghu…

TMTB Morning Wrap

Thu Oct 8, 8:28 AM ET#5 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning. QQQs -60bps lower as yields +4bps across the curve and Oil +5% following several Trump is considering air strikes headlines and an uptick in Hormuz commercial ship attacks.: “Military ordered to be ready for possible Iran strikes as Trump weighs timing” ( Axios ), “U.S.

TMTB EOD Wrap

Wed Oct 7, 5:22 PM ET#5 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good afternoon. QQQs -25bps , well off the -1% morning lows, but underneath was uglier than the index with a lot more red than green on my screen. Semis -1.1% and software -1.2% underperformed while internet +70bps was green. Overall didn’t hear any panic or shifting narratives from investors today — seemed more like a digestion/rotation day.

TMTB Podcast Intel: SemiAnalysis’s Patel and Nanos on AI’s Payback Math, Marvell’s (MRVL) Murphy on Custom Silicon and Optics, Figma’s (FIG) Field on the Design Agent, The Circuit on the Memory Cycle

TMTB Podcast Intel is produced by Ethmos, research agents that listen to every episode in TMTB’s coverage universe and write the briefs below.

by EthmosWed Oct 7, 4:33 PM ET#5 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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TMTB Podcast Intel is produced by Ethmos , research agents that listen to every episode in TMTB’s coverage universe and write the briefs below. Today’s Essential Episodes: SemiAnalysis’s Dylan Patel and Jordan Nanos on Whether AI Spending Can Keep Growing Exponentially, NVIDIA as Financier and the Anthropic IPO Big Technology Podcast, with Alex Kantrowitz, Dylan Patel (founder and CEO of…

TMTB Morning Wrap

Wed Oct 7, 8:02 AM ET#5 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning. QQQs -75bps / SPY -40bp s as higher yields weighing this morning: 10year +6.5bps to 5.35% and 30year +6bps to 5.7% as European yields also up after sliding yesterday. Oil +1% on reports Iran has been increasing attacks in Hormuz In Tech, Semis -2% leading the way lower with many names down 2-4% across the board. Software/Internet -30bps hanging in better.

TMTB Podcast Intel: Ex-Anthropic Researcher Jacob Coxon, Google’s (GOOG) Vahdat on TPUs, Hugging Face’s Wolf on the NVIDIA (NVDA) Deal, CrowdStrike (CRWD) CEO on Agents, Nokia (NOK) CEO, and More

by EthmosTue Oct 6, 4:52 PM ET#5 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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TMTB Podcast Intel is produced by Ethmos research agents. Following GOOG, CRWD, NVDA, or NOK? Ethmos can file a brief for you every time their executives speak on a podcast. Try it free for 14 days. Today’s Essential Episodes: Former OpenAI and Anthropic Researcher Jacob Coxon on Why He Quit, 2027 as a Turning Point and Why He Suspects Spies Inside US AI Labs PBD Podcast, with Patrick Bet-David…

Building a Serial Acquirer Portfolio

Part I

Sun Oct 4, 7:44 AM ET#7 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Hi Partner 👋 It’s time to wrap up serial acquirer week. Today, it’s time for the most fun part: building a serial acquirer portfolio . We found 12 very exciting names. On average, these names compounded shareholder returns at +34% per year! Let’s dive in right away. Before we start Before we start, it helps to structure the portfolio in 4 buckets. Each bucket consists of 3 serial acquirers.

The 5-Minute Serial Acquirer Test

How to Find the Best Serial Acquirers in 5 Minutes

Thu Oct 1, 7:44 AM ET#7 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Hi Partner 👋 Earlier this week , we looked at what serial acquirers are and why they are interesting. Today, it’s time for the second article. You will learn how to identify the best serial acquirers yourself in less than 5 minutes. Ready. Set. Go! Invert, always invert There are probably over 300 public companies that you could label as serial acquirers.

It’s Serial Acquirer Week

The Best of Both Worlds: High Returns, Low Risk

Tue Sep 29, 7:44 AM ET#7 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Hi Partner 👋 It’s a special week today. Why? It’s Serial Acquirer Week. In three articles, you’ll learn everything you need to know about serial acquirers. Here’s what to expect: Article 1 (today) : What are serial acquirers? And why are they interesting? Article 2 : A handy toolkit to find the best serial acquirers in the world Article 3 : A model portfolio co… Read more

Selling one, buying two

Increasing future returns

Sun Sep 27, 7:44 AM ET#7 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Dear Partner 👋 I hope you are doing well. Today it’s time for another position switch in Our Portfolio: We are selling one company We are using the proceeds to add to two positions Optimizing the Portfolio The goal of Our Portfolio? Having a portfolio we can be proud of. Your portfolio should reflect your personality. You should own companies that let you sleep well at night.

Buying a new ETF

The New Value Investing

Thu Sep 24, 7:44 AM ET#7 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Stock prices always follow the evolution of the intrinsic value. We want to buy companies that are: High quality Very profitable Trading at an attractive valuation Let’s dive into Our ETF Portfolio today and add to our portfolio. Value Investing 101 Warren Buffett’s mentor? Ben Graham. Ben Graham is th e father of value investing. His investment philosophy was s… Read more

Who is Chuck Akre?

Three legged stool

Tue Sep 22, 7:45 AM ET#7 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Chuck Akre loves Compounding Machines. He returned 12.6% per year to shareholders since 2009. Let’s dive into the lessons and philosophy of this legendary investor. Who is Chuck Akre? Chuck Akre is a highly respected investor known for his disciplined approach and long-term mindset. People often refer to him as one of the best quality investors in the world . … Read more

Uncomfortable Truths

by Le ShrubTue Sep 22, 7:06 AM ET2 min read#8 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

GM Shrubstack! Yesterday, AI stonks were on fire thanks to META’s latest AI Agent, Muse , which got everyone super-excited and eager to sacrifice their remaining privacy and share their credit card details with Mark Zuckerberg … …which proves that the AI Ecosystem is in shambles when Zuck appears more trustworthy than Scam Altman and Dario “Am-not-Opus-Dei” … …where even Jensen is calling out…

Claudification Overdrive™️ - Part II

The pesky “AI vs Shale” comparison is back!

by Le ShrubTue Sep 15, 7:38 AM ET2 min read#8 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Claudification ™️: “The Outsourcing of Investment Research and Decision-Making to AI” (source: Shrubstack) I’ve had enough. I’m a patient shrub, but I’ve had enough. One day it’s “WE’VE REACHED AGI!” … …the other day it’s “WE NEED TO SLOW DOWN OTHERWISE THE DIGITAL GOD WILL KILL US ALL”… h/t @contextconor …while the “AI Slowdown Committee”, featuring prominent figures like “Scam” Altman and Dario…

The 60/40 Portfolio Re-Invented

Creating Asymmetry in Bonds

by Le ShrubSun Sep 13, 6:06 AM ET#8 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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I hate Bonds. I mean I really really hate Bonds! To start with, Bonds offer the exact opposite return profile of what we seek here at Shrubstack: Limited Upside, with Significant Downside! Secondly, thanks to the reckless fiscal and monetary policies of our governments, Sovereign Bonds have mostly offered returns below inflation, and rightly became known as “Certificates of Confiscation”.

The Debt Crisis is now Beginning

by Tom DysonWed Oct 7, 6:22 PM ET#14 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Please note, we’re aware some Gmail users are not receiving the weekly market and research notes from Tom Dyson and Dan Denning. Substack is aware of the issue and working with Google to resolve it. It in the meantime, we’ll also send the weekly updates to our back-up email list to ensure you receive them.

Springtime for Flimflam

Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

by Bill BonnerWed Oct 7, 9:01 AM ET4 min read#14 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

St George slays the dragon. Source: Getty Images Wednesday, October 7th, 2026 Bill Bonner, from Ardmore, Ireland I used to have this girlfriend known as Elsie With whom I shared four sordid rooms in Chelsea She wasn’t what you’d call a blushing flower As a matter of fact, she rented by the hour The day she died the neighbors came to snicker: “Well, that’s what comes from too much pills and…

An End to US Debt

by Bill BonnerTue Oct 6, 8:30 AM ET4 min read#14 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Tuesday, October 6th, 2026 Bill Bonner, from Ardmore, Ireland Want to know where the US is headed? Want a peek at the future? Here it is: more inflation. More than you expect. We depend on rising interest rates and the ‘ bond vigilantes ’ to ride herd on inflation. Instead, they will drive up the real costs of moderate inflation…leaving hyperinflation as the likely outcome.

Swindling the Swindler

Monday, October 5th, 2026

by Bill BonnerMon Oct 5, 9:28 AM ET4 min read#14 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

US government debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP. Source: Congressional Budget Office Monday, October 5th, 2026 Bill Bonner, from Ardmore, Ireland Will wonders never cease! Inflation is being rehabilitated. It used to be a bad thing. A proper villain. A swindler. Now...it is the nation’s savior.

BPR Week in Review: The ‘demon germ’ and stock market euphoria

by Bill BonnerSun Oct 4, 10:44 AM ET2 min read#14 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Sunday, October 4th, 2026 Laramie, Wyoming Late in the history of the Soviet Empire, in a clandestine effort to destroy the entire civilian populations of the United States and its allies in Europe, it’s alleged scientists engineered a novel plague virus. Once deployed, the virus would wipe out everyone but leave the infrastructure of civilization intact.

The Davidson Earth Disaster Cycle

by Dan DenningFri Oct 2, 6:53 PM ET#14 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Friday, October 2nd, 2026 Laramie, Wyoming By Dan Denning Greetings from the High Plains! The biggest and baddest financial disasters don’t fall from the sky. It’s not a geomagnetic excursion or crustal displacement or a coronal mass ejection that kills a bull market.

Interest Rate Strategy: How High Can They Really Go?

The underlying drivers of interest rates and HOW MUCH equities are at risk

Thu Sep 24, 9:47 AM ET#15 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The rally in interest rates over the last 3 months has had multiple drivers that are fundamentally misunderstood by market participants. WHEN we do have a drawdown in global equity markets, it will be signaled and confirmed by the underlying drivers in interest rates.

The KOSPI Is Where Policy Meets The AI Trade

South Korea is the cleanest example of how regulatory change and capital flows drive price action, and why the KOSPI matters for US tech

Tue Sep 22, 5:15 PM ET#15 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Global power forces have always had a dominant role in financial markets since the beginning of time. These create significant macro dislocations that global macro traders take advantage of, since they are directly linked to rates, FX, and global trade expressed in the balance of payments.

Credit-Fueled Growth Is Moving the Cycle Forward

Balance sheet expansion is extending the expansion and repricing the policy path

Sun Sep 20, 3:32 PM ET#15 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The recent pullback in the S&P 500 has primarily been driven by the yield curve bear flattening, which means the short end has repriced significantly more than the long end has priced in additional nominal GDP. In simple terms, this is the Fed playing catch-up after its previous inaction during the inflationary shock and the rise in growth expectations.

From One Policy Error To The Next

Global margin call and constraints

Thu Sep 17, 3:16 PM ET#15 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Macro Risk and Policy Error Risk can never be destroyed, only transferred. This is a fundamental presupposition for HOW capital flows through the system and WHY it moves. The challenge begins once you realize that risk is expressed in both nominal and real purchasing power terms across global markets, not in siloed systems. What is the tangible implication of this?

The Risk of Things Getting Better

Between the Lines - Vol. 19

by Lord FedMon Sep 14, 7:07 PM ET9 min read#16 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Last time I wrote I put on some QQQ downside and this week I took off half and subsequently bought some QQQ calls as NQ approached 29k. NQ has managed to hold that 29k area well since May, there have been a few moves below it but each time has been met with a sharp rally back above it.

Peak Hormuz

Ship-to-ship transfer is maxed out. The oil shuttle flow volume is going lower.

Tue Oct 6, 11:01 PM ET#17 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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On Sept 28, I wrote an article titled, “ The Oman Lane Flow Is Giving The Oil Market A False Sense Of Stability .” Market participants began pointing out that Oman Lane flow was reaching “pre-war” levels. Instead of asking why oil prices remained so elevated or why the physical market remained in distress, most market participants attributed elevated oil prices to persistent tanker-attack risks.

(WCTW) Releasing SPR Now Is Like Throwing Water Bottles At A Burning House

Mon Oct 5, 9:04 PM ET#17 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The US announced last Tuesday that it would release the final ~40 million bbl tranche of the SPR (172 million bbls total). And on Friday, following threats of a diesel export ban from the US, France’s Macron stated that it is considering ~50 million bbls of diesel from the SPR and asking IEA members to release another ~50 million bbls of crude. Politicians will always be politicians.

China Cancels Product Exports And What It Means For The Global Oil Market

Thu Oct 1, 2:25 AM ET#17 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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It’s déjà vu again. China announced today that it is canceling all petroleum product exports outside Hong Kong and Macau, effective immediately. No duration for the export ban was announced. If you went through the trauma of March to July, you may remember that China’s lack of crude buying and the start of the oil shuttle trade marked the beginning of the big drop in crude.

Here's My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (Sept 30)

Tue Sep 29, 9:48 PM ET#17 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Please see the chronological order of the oil trade game plan write-ups: Here’s My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (August 25) Here’s My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (Sept 1) Here’s My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (Sept 8) Here’s My Game Plan For The Oil Trade (Sept 23) The final TACO is complete.

The Oman Lane Flow Is Giving The Oil Market A False Sense Of Stability

Mon Sep 28, 4:06 AM ET#17 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The all-or-nothing aspect of this Iran war is fascinating to both trade and observe. Since the start of the war, there was a group of market participants that expected the war to end within days or weeks. Seven months on, that group disappeared, rightfully so. Not only were they wrong beyond belief, but they falsely assumed that Trump could unilaterally exit the war.

(Public) Mach Natural Resources - A Buying Opportunity

Fri Sep 25, 8:34 AM ET6 min read#17 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

By: Jon Costello Mach Natural Resources’ ( MNR ) units have been under pressure since early August for two very different reasons. The first was fundamental, with the second quarter coming in weaker than I expected and Mach cut its quarterly distribution to $0.36 from $0.64. The second was technical. On September 15, Kayne Anderson began marketing 8 million units at a discount to the prior close.

💥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - And Go Concepts, LLC (Salad and Go)💥

QSR Salad Co. gets tossed into chapter 11 to sell leases and liquidate

by CEfNVWed Oct 7, 7:58 AM ET7 min read#19 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

On August 4, 2026, Tempe, AZ-based And Go Concepts, LLC and four affiliates (collectively, the “debtors” and together with their non-debtor affiliates, the “company”) filed chapter 11 bankruptcy cases in the Southern District of Texas ( Judge Perez ).

💥Leslies Term Lenders Toss a Life Preserver💥

Leslie’s Inc., Sangamo Therapeutics Inc. ($SGMO) & LIV Golf Incorporated + More

by PETITION LLCSun Oct 4, 11:16 AM ET#19 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Photo by Jon Cellier on Unsplash Everyone’s an interest rate nerd these days and the nerds got quite a bit of data to parse this past week. One, there was the September nonfarm payrolls report. It came in WAY weaker than consensus expectations, adding just 29k jobs versus 90k projected (and August got revised down by 29k jobs from +162k to +133k).

🤿New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - Leslie’s Inc.🤿

Pool retailer finally flops into bankruptcy to hand keys over to term lenders.

by PETITION LLCSun Oct 4, 11:14 AM ET#19 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Photo by Fakhri Labib on Unsplash . That 👆limp lifeless hand must from one of the company’s shareholders. “ This reflects an extraordinary outcome for a brick-and-mortar retailer. We've seen a number of these cases where retailers have emerged from Chapter 11 with too much footprint, too much leverage. We do not intend for that to be the case here. ” — Jack Luze of Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP.

💥Yield!💥

Beyond Meat Inc. ($BYND)+ S.M.F. Group Inc.

by PETITION LLCWed Sep 30, 8:04 AM ET10 min read#19 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Photo by Luismi Sánchez on Unsplash Y’all are reaching. Johnny was out and about in the RX scene this week and heard some jagoff cite an inverted yield curve as a sign that RX activity might pick up in earnest soon. Economics geeks like Johnny know that, traditionally anyway, an inverted yield curve could be counted on as a leading indicator of recession — typically somewhere within 15 months…

💥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - S.M.F. Group Inc.💥

Predominantly NYC-located restauranteur files for BK; Landry’s swoops in to buy.

by PETITION LLCWed Sep 30, 7:59 AM ET5 min read#19 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Back on August 9, 2026, S.M.F. Group Inc. d/b/a The Fireman Hospitality Group, and 21 affiliates (collectively, the “debtors”) — operators of a portfolio of “iconic”-yet-now-bankrupt restaurants in Midtown New York City and Washington DC — filed for chapter 11 in the Southern District of New York ( Judge Barday ).

🔥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - UPG Enterprises LLC🔥

Steel processor falls into bankruptcy in dire need of liquidity.

by PETITION LLCSun Sep 27, 3:45 PM ET#19 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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On September 22, 2026, Oak Brook Illinois-based UPG Enterprises LLC (“UPG”) and 18 affiliates (collectively, the “debtors” and along with non-debtor entities, the “company”) filed chapter 11 bankruptcy cases in the Northern District of Illinois ( Judge Fine ).

Bet on the Winners

Today we discuss another of Doug’s Nine Ps of Resource Stock Evaluation. People.

by John Hunt, MDTue Oct 6, 11:09 AM ET4 min read#20 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

A bull market in metals makes every mining CEO look like a genius. A rising tide lifts all boats, including the ones that are going to sink. Which is why, when capital floods back into the junior miners, the People question matters more than ever. There are discovery machines and there are dilution machines. It’s hard to distinguish them in the financials, initially.

The 9 Ps of Prescriptions, Potions and Pills

Every Pill Is a Position

by John Hunt, MDMon Oct 5, 11:08 AM ET6 min read#20 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Open most medicine cabinets and you’ll find a portfolio no investor should hold: two dozen positions, no thesis, no exit plan, auto-delivery and a monthly bill. You shouldn’t buy a junior miner because a stranger said it tripled for his brother-in-law. Yet that’s the standard of evidence behind a lot of the capsules people swallow every day.

Weekly Recap October 4, 2026

by Doug CaseySun Oct 4, 11:09 AM ET#20 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Matt & Doug relaxed this week. This month’s issue for premium subscribers.

U.S. Strengths and Weaknesses in Production

Strong at the Source, Vulnerable in the Supply Chain

by John Hunt, MDFri Oct 2, 11:07 AM ET5 min read#20 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

One of my philosophies is that success is better achieved from building on one’s strengths, not from overcoming non-fatal weaknesses. If I spend effort making myself better at things I don’t genetically, physically or otherwise have innate capabilities to do, I may improve myself, but not by as much as if I were to spend the time, energy and money building upon what I am innately good at.

MONTHLY ISSUE: Picks and Shovels for a War Already Underway

‘Crisis Investing’ Monthly Issue 9 / September 2026 – Vol 3. Drones and Robots

by John Hunt, MDWed Sep 30, 7:40 PM ET#20 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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In 1941, Hitler rolled into Russia with 3400 tanks and 625,000 horses. You don’t see the horses in the movies. Those horses fared poorly. In February 2022, Russia rolled toward Kyiv with 1,700 tanks. Those tanks fared poorly. A large share of them now sit in scrapyards and muddy fields.

Who Gets the Fiat Currency First

Letter 2 in this series on the dollar’s unique position as a fiat currency serving as the global reserve currency.

by John Hunt, MDTue Sep 29, 11:07 AM ET5 min read#20 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Two Economies Every dollar the Fed creates puts upward pressure on asset prices and consumer prices. On one side are people who own the assets. These folk check their net worth frequently. On the other: people who work for an hourly or salaried wage, buying groceries and fuel and waiting for a raise. These folk check their bank balance and credit card debt frequently. Both sides vote.

繼續賺翻，2028年繼續供需緊張，長約越來越多，市場卻沒有特別興奮？財報解剖: MU | 26年10月

by KP@FOMOSocThu Oct 1, 7:40 AM ET#21 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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美光，無疑是過去大半年全市場討論度最高、成交量最為驚人的明星股之一。 如果把時間軸拉長來看，它的走勢簡直像是一趟雲霄飛車：在短短一年內瘋狂暴漲了將近 7 倍，隨後又在短短幾個月內從高點重挫了近 40%。 然而，面對如此極致的劇烈波動，這次美光公佈了一份堪稱亮眼的財報後，股價竟然一反常態： 幾乎毫無波瀾，靜得讓人感到有些超現實。 為什麼市場這次「不嗨了」？ 如果你回頭重讀我過去關於記憶體產業與美光的系列分析，你就會明白，華爾街真正焦慮的從來都不是「這季賺了多少錢」，甚至不是「下季賺了多少錢」。 我強烈推薦大家重溫這篇分析，全文在下此： 事實上，這季驚人的獲利數字，並沒有解決市場心頭最大的陰霾。那個攸關記憶體週期終點、決定這檔股票未來命運的 核心大問題，在這份財報裡依然沒有給出答案 。 閱讀建議與導覽…

當 Amazon 關上門，Shopify 攜手 Meta，AI 代勞下單的年代，賣「鏟子」的還值錢嗎？ - 深入分析第66期：Shopify

2026 年 9 月 20 日晚上，有人試著使用 Meta 剛推出的 AI 助理「Muse」，到 Amazon 網站上進行採購。

by KP@FOMOSocWed Sep 30, 6:26 AM ET#21 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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2026 年 9 月 20 日晚上，有人試著使用 Meta 剛推出的 AI 助理「Muse」， 到 Amazon 網站上進行採購 。 沒想到，螢幕上彈出一行提示，指出該 AI 未經授權，違反了使用條款。 Amazon 選擇關上大門，拒絕讓 AI 進入。 第二天，Shopify 執行長 Tobi Lütke 在社交平台 X 上宣布，旗下的結帳工具 Shop Pay 將全面支援 Muse。 這項消息帶動 Shopify 股價上漲。Meta 執行長 Mark Zuckerberg 也轉發了這則消息，並表示這能幫助更多顧客找到商品，也讓更多商家完成交易。 兩家巨頭的決策，讓電商行業走向了兩個截然不同的方向。 一邊是 Amazon 的封閉防守，另一邊是 Shopify 的開放合作。 這項轉變也引發了市場的討論： AI 助理的普及，究竟會給 Shopify 帶來機遇，還是潛在的危機？…

Muse令CPU需求上升？亞馬遜為何封鎖？平台公司怎麼辦？ - KP思考筆記(第61期)

by KP@FOMOSocSat Sep 26, 12:50 AM ET4 min read#21 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

大家好，我是 KP，歡迎來到第 61 期的《週末思考筆記》。 先祝大家中秋節快樂！ 希望大家在與家人團聚之餘，資產與思維也都能一路增值。 這一期和上一期一樣，也是只有一個主題，但也是一個極具深度且長篇幅的剖析。 本週全球科技圈的焦點只有一個，就是 Meta 推出的 Agent Muse。 這不僅是一個新產品，更標誌著 AI Agent 正式從「企業場景」下沉到「個人場景」。 由於牽涉的角度太廣，壓到下週實在太可惜，所以我跟團隊連夜整理，決定週末直接呈上這篇長篇深度剖析。 說到團隊，由這一期開始，你會偶爾在內容裡看到團隊成員的名字。負責和我一起想內容的，是 Benita 和 Jazz。 是的，FOMO 研究院現在有了一個小團隊，各有專長。 多一些人一起想，總能撈到幾個你自己沒想到的角度。 之前幾期的財報解剖，其實已經是這個模式在跑了，只是從這一次開始，你終於會看到名字。…

巴菲特退任，價投劃上句號？他的尺還量得動AI時代嗎？為何最後買Google？ - 深入分析第65期：巴菲特

by KP@FOMOSocWed Sep 23, 6:03 AM ET#21 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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2026 年 9 月的奧馬哈，96 歲的巴菲特寫下了一封信，宣佈退任Berkshire Hathaway的主席。 信裡沒有長篇大論的投資哲理，只有一句輕描淡寫，卻重如泰山的告別：「 時間老人總會獲勝（Father Time always wins）。 」 這句話像一個句號，畫在六十年的投資生涯上。但對很多人來說，這個句號似乎也畫在了一種投資方法上。 過去十幾年，市場一直在講同一個故事：價值投資已經過時了。巴菲特的方法太老、太慢、太保守。 在零利率和科技股狂飆的年代，他看起來像一個固執的老人，守著可口可樂和銀行股，眼睜睜看著世界往前跑。 有很多人甚至給他貼上了一個殘忍的標籤：跟不上時代。 但我不這樣認為。 巴菲特留給我們的，從來不只是一種「買便宜貨」的技巧。他留下來的，是一套理解商業本質的方法。…

升息等於大市要崩？重回 90 年代三大劇本，看懂歷史上的升息真相 - KP思考筆記(第60期)

by KP@FOMOSocFri Sep 18, 11:05 PM ET3 min read#21 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

大家好，我是 KP，歡迎來到第 60 期的《週末思考筆記》。 這一期會比較特別一點，只有一個主題，但這會是一個極具深度且長篇幅的剖析。 為甚麼只有一個主題呢？因為我認為， 當前的市場已經進入了由「宏觀主導」的關鍵節點 。 而這次的 FOMC 過後，我們需要去重新思考未來一段時間的投資方向。 本來呢，這個主題我原本打算放在付費的「深度分析」中。但考慮到如果等到下週才發布，可能會有點晚。 所以，我決定在這個週末將它完全公開，讓所有人都能免費閱讀。如果你讀完覺得有所啟發，請不吝幫我點個讚，這對我是極大的鼓勵。 最近有不少新朋友加入，有位讀者問了我一個很好的問題。 「KP，我剛加入，應該如何開始閱讀你的分析呢？需要從第一期按順序讀起嗎？」 這個問題之所以問得極好，是因為他沒有把這裡的分析當作「看完即丟」的投機代碼，而是看作了某種可以反覆研讀的知識資產。 我一直強調，…

Cybercab 發布、Waymo 擴張，Uber 時間已在倒數？ - 深入分析第64期：UBER

by KP@FOMOSocWed Sep 16, 6:20 AM ET#21 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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1903 年，紐約街頭的馬車全握在馬廄老闆手裡。他們買馬、雇司機、包辦修車，掌控了整座城市的出行。 1908 年，福特 Model T 登場。汽車擊敗了馬匹，但也把養車與開車的負擔，甩給了千家萬戶的私家車主。 百年後的 Uber 則做了一場精明的整合：它一輛車都不買，只是把 1908 年散落各地的私家車，重新用演算法打包成一個 21 世紀的「數位馬廄」。 到了 2026 年，當 Robotaxi 讓車子不再需要司機，歷史彷彿又繞回了 1903 年。製造車輛的公司能自己運營車隊、接送乘客。 這時，華爾街開始問一個問題： 當車廠能重新包辦一切，我們還需要 Uber 畫面上的那個按鈕嗎？ 開始之前，再次溫馨提醒大家： 本週五我們將正式調漲月費訂閱價格 （年費保持不變，既有訂戶的價格也將永久鎖定）。 如果還在猶豫的，不妨閱讀一下「我離職了」那篇下面的留言，算是有很多五星好評。 期待你的加入。…

Secretary Rollins Announces ARC and PLC Payments

$13.8 Billion of Gross Payments, Net Likely to be closer to $13 billion

by Paul NeifferThu Oct 8, 10:22 AM ET2 min read#23 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash USDA announced on October 7 that ARC and PLC will generate about $13.8 billion for the 2025 crop year, the largest annual payout since these programs started in the 2014 Farm Bill. It is also a gross number. Two reductions sit between that headline and what lands in your client’s account, and USDA says so right in the release.

Crop Quality Losses: What Farmers Need to Know Before the Grain Leaves the Farm

We are hearing about lots of quality losses due to excess rain.

by Paul NeifferThu Oct 8, 9:32 AM ET#23 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Photo by Roger Starnes Sr on Unsplash Let me start with a disclaimer. I am a CPA, not a crop insurance expert. I do not sell crop insurance or adjust claims. This post covers the basics I see farmers get wrong, but your policy, your agent and your adjuster control. Call them before you act on anything here. With that out of the way, here is why this matters this fall.

ARC-IC Might Be the Best Call You Make This Fall

Since you will know your yields before sign-up, ARC-IC may be the smarter choice for 2026

by Paul NeifferWed Oct 7, 9:30 AM ET#23 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Photo by Polina Rytova on Unsplash For the first time I can remember, farmers get to make their ARC/PLC election after harvest. The 2026 signup runs September 16 through December 11, 2026. That means most of you will know your actual yields, your average yields and a pretty good guess at your county yield before you sign anything. Normally the choice is a forecast.

Join Paul for a Livestream Today

We will be doing our first Livestream today

by Paul NeifferWed Oct 7, 9:02 AM ET#23 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

We will be doing a Facebook Livestream today at 1 pm MT. Topic: 2025 ARC/PLC payments and expectations for 2026 ARC/PLC payments. Sign-up link: https://share.hsforms.com/1qr1GryNnRSGTim8MsY9cWAq7tbs Since this is the first time that we have done this, I will not guarantee that it will be glitch free. I look forward to the discussion with everyone.

The Section 1062 Acceleration Examples, and What Happens to the Farmhouse

We review some final examples of acceleration

by Paul NeifferTue Oct 6, 9:08 AM ET#23 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Photo by Darío Bonzi on Unsplash Six more examples in the new Section 1062 proposed regulations. One deals with the farmhouse and five deal with what blows up your four-year payment plan. Start with the farmhouse. Example 6 has Individual M and M’s spouse realizing $1,000x of gain on a qualified sale.

Who Actually Makes the Section 1062 Election

We review the examples on who makes the election

by Paul NeifferMon Oct 5, 8:58 AM ET#23 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Photo by Rodrigo Ramos on Unsplash If a partnership or an S corporation sells the farm ground, who makes the Section 1062 election? The new proposed regulations answer that with four examples, and the rule they establish is consistent. The election follows the tax liability, not the sale. The first example has an LLC taxed as a partnership with two equal members.

Oil Running Low - Josh Young on the David Lin Report

Oil Shortages Next? Podcast Interview

by Josh YoungTue Oct 6, 10:21 AM ET1 min read#25 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

I joined David Lin yesterday to share my latest views on oil markets: I referenced some charts and figures that were included in the latest “This Week in Oil” And I touched on some factors that led me to sell Cenovus Energy and that increased my conviction in three compelling oil stock ideas: *Disclaimer: I and funds I advise own shares discussed and may buy or sell them at any time without…

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

C$5.7 Billion acquisition is dilutive, but it implies substantial upside in other stocks

Mon Oct 5, 4:32 PM ET#25 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Cenovus Energy announced that it is acquiring Athabasca Oil in a richly valued $5.7 billion deal. With shares up 78% since I first wrote about Cenovus in December 2025, compared with 35% since then for , the oil and gas producer ETF, I have sold my remaining shares in the company and am “closing out” the idea in the Bison Insights composite: My thesis was that Cenovus was undervalued due to…

This Week in Oil

Volatile, frenetic week, with oil down, oil stocks up, and much debate

by Josh YoungSat Oct 3, 9:56 AM ET3 min read#25 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

It was another frenetic week in the oil market, with oil prices highly volatile but only down 1.2% by the end of the week to WTI $91.26. Below I share some key charts, observations and Bison Insights perspectives: While sentiment among oil stock investors may be in the doldrums, the much discussed “disconnect” between oil prices and oil stocks reversed, with oil stocks outperforming, up 1.9% vs…

Podcast: The Next Oil Shock

Oil prices could go parabolic after US midterm elections

by Josh YoungFri Oct 2, 11:26 AM ET1 min read#25 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

I was on “TheRoyaltyKing” podcast recently, where I shared my thoughts on the oil market, where I am finding compelling value in the oil industry value chain, and chatted about various other topics with Ben Demase: I didn’t mention the name of this company, but I did highlight this sort of setup as among the most compelling I’ve seen: Enjoy, and let me know what you think!

Drilling Down: Big Well Result, More Upside

Unlocked Upside Potential for This Top Idea

Thu Oct 1, 9:55 AM ET#25 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Last week, I wrote a short summary about a standout well result at one of my largest holdings, prioritizing speed to publication because the result was in the public data but had not yet been press released by the company: I’m sharing this more in-depth analysis because of the importance of the result to my investment thesis.

This Week in Oil

Oil Prices Declined, Conference Takeaways

by Josh YoungSat Sep 26, 1:26 PM ET2 min read#25 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Below is a brief summary of key data points and events from this past week in the oil market. Enjoy! Oil prices fell this week, with WTI oil down 3.6% to $92.66, as news of a potential resumption of the US / Iran deal emerged: With oil prices declining, oil & gas stocks fell even more, with the large cap oil ETF down 4.8%: US oil & refined products inventories remained at low levels, with diesel…

Market Update & Signals 10/7/26

Momentum is expanding across the board. Strong action across multiple core watchlist groups. New groups are joining the rally. Watching Rates and FX closely.

Wed Oct 7, 6:53 AM ET#26 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning. The S&P 500 index posted its 28th all-time closing high of the year. Nearly 1 in 7 trading days in 2026 (~15%) have closed at new all-time highs. Imagine saying this to someone on January 1… and then telling them everything else that happened.

Market Update & Signals 10/6/26

Following up on historic signals. Markets are in motion with big moves out of the gate. The asymmetry remains extremely compelling. The next big trend may be ready to run.

Tue Oct 6, 6:45 AM ET#26 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning. Following up on the historic signals we are monitoring… Markets are in motion. Big moves out of the gate this week: The asymmetry remains extremely compelling here, in my view. Looking through the tape: 1. Stocks. Read more

A MARKET DIVIDED.

An extremely rare, historic signal has fired. Seven Charts for the week ahead, Top signals I’m watching, my Medium-term Outlook, and much more.

Sun Oct 4, 6:55 AM ET#26 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Barron’s Magazine Cover: “A Market Divided” In today’s report: Hitting the ground running on Q4 — full speed ahead, laser-focused on the tape: An extremely rare, historic signal has fired. Markets may be tipping their hand for what comes next. We’ll discuss the implications, and what we’re doing about it.

Market Update & Signals 10/2/26

Hitting the ground running on Q4. A pivotal, asymmetric moment. From a pure Risk-Reward perspective, this setup is as classic as it gets. Following the plan and making initial moves.

Fri Oct 2, 5:47 AM ET#26 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning and happy Friday. Hitting the ground running on Q4… No one knows what today’s highly-watched economic data will bring, but from a pure Risk-Reward perspective, this setup is as classic as it gets. “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” — Stan Druckenmiller Markets are sending a…

Market Update & Signals 10/1/26

Two big new trades. Multiple catalysts incoming. One of the best setups of the year for contrarian-minded investors. Watching key signals for a shift in market conditions.

Thu Oct 1, 6:55 AM ET#26 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning. September and Q3 are in the books: What stood out: ✅ Stocks ignored September seasonality, with Tech leading the tape. ✅ Strength led to more strength… ✅ Not many areas did well, but those that did were extremely impressive. Another big vote for following trends… At the beginning of September I said it was likely to be a “very choppy month”.

Market Update & Signals 9/30/26

Multiple catalysts incoming over the next few days. Watching key signals for a shift in market conditions. The reaction is more important than the news. Watch the reaction...

Wed Sep 30, 6:20 AM ET#26 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Good morning. Closing the books on September: Patience and discipline served us well, and more importantly… kept us out of trouble. October is coming — getting ready for the final lap of 2026: ✅ Multiple catalysts incoming over the next few days. ✅ One of the best setups of the year for contrarian-minded investors. ✅ Watching key signals for a shift in market conditions.

It’s Almost Time To Launch

My two new positions, Micron earnings, my favorite rate squeeze play, bonds, the overall market, and more.

by ZaThu Oct 1, 4:36 PM ET#27 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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There’s a big move brewing. The market hasn’t been this coiled in a long time. A few days ago, SpaceX successfully sent Starship into orbit for the first time. Is the market about to take off in similar fashion? Trump and the market are playing a game of chicken against one another. The main issue is that Trump knows he has an eject button he can press at any time.

The Trade: Lehman Brothers 2.0

Why I’m hyper fixated on this one idea.

by ZaTue Sep 29, 5:39 PM ET#27 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Sometimes an opportunity comes along that reels me in. And this one has reeled me in! Since the market has been pretty quiet the past few days as we await Micron earnings and economic data later in the week, I wanted to discuss a potential opportunity I’ve hinted at a few times now. One thing we know about markets is that people like to overreact to both the downside and the upside.

Weekly Market Report 9/27/26

Monster bases in AI kings, the next “Meta from 2022”, the AI trade, Xi and Trump, my trading portfolio, and more.

by ZaSun Sep 27, 8:11 AM ET#27 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Through all of the turbulence, headlines, and fear the Nasdaq is less than 1% away from all time highs. There has been no shortage of catalysts to take this market lower. Yields, oil, Iran, midterms, AI safety and slowdown fears, the list goes on. Yet the market just continues to go higher! One of the few positives came from Xi’s visit to the U.S.

Signals Are Piling Up

My new AI position, the Muse trade, Iran, yields, and more.

by ZaThu Sep 24, 5:29 PM ET#27 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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This market is a whirlwind. One day it feels like we’re back and everything is great. Oil is lower, yields are falling, and stocks are flying. Times are fun again! The next we’re pulling back and everyone gets frantic again. This is what I consider a kangaroo market. A kangaroo market is one that keeps bouncing up and down without making sustained progress in either direction.

*READ THIS* Year Two: What’s Changing

Updated pricing for new members, new article schedule, more commentary. Yes, existing members and anyone who joins before October 4 will keep their current rate as long as they maintain their plan.

by ZaTue Sep 22, 6:07 PM ET7 min read#27 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Hi everyone, It’s been almost one year since I started this Substack. Quite the ride! Over the past year we’ve had a number of massive winners across names like GEV, MRVL, NXT, ARM, DELL, RKLB, NET, OUST, and INTC, along with plenty of smaller wins along the way. Of course, though, there have been losers over the course of this year too!

Weekly Market Report 9/20/26

The next monster theme, the AI trade, best hyperscaler opportunity, crypto, my portfolio, and more.

by ZaSun Sep 20, 8:05 AM ET32 min read#27 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

The AI trade was declared dead last week. Supposedly, Anthropic and OpenAI were going to “slow down” AI spending. Right… Shortly after these fake calls to slow AI development, we got a look at just how much they’re actually slowing down. According to reports, OpenAI projects $856B in compute and infrastructure spending through 2030.

M’tourist Private Recap

for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

by Kevin MuirFri Oct 2, 3:36 AM ET#31 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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FARTHER THAN YOU CAN IMAGINE, QUICKER THAN YOU FORECASTED

The ‘tourist is getting ready to buy rates, but not yet...

by Kevin MuirWed Sep 30, 6:21 AM ET#31 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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5% Treasury Tantrum

by EliantWed Sep 23, 10:27 PM ET#32 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Hello All, To jump straight into it, it’s been a mixed week across the indices given the excitement around the recent release of META’s ‘Muse,’ which, in turn, has reignited the AI trade, leading to quite the outperformance amongst Tech on the week, whereas the other side of the trade is how lackluster breadth continues to remain given the continued surge in the 10Y as the conflict within the…

The Week Ahead 9/13/26

by EliantSun Sep 13, 7:41 PM ET#32 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Hello All, I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26. Jumping straight into it, in looking back at this past week, despite being post-Labor Day, it was generally still a lower-volume week, yet not necessarily a lower-volatility one given the continued flare-up in the Middle East between the U.S.

Credit Weekly: Rates Did Most of the Damage

High yield is down 1.84% in September, and spreads were the smaller part of it

Sun Sep 27, 7:06 PM ET6 min read#38 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

The Fed hiked 25bps. And then the market hiked another 60. The second move is the one high yield investors should be watching. Since the end of August, the peak policy rate priced into futures has risen about 60bps. The 5-year Treasury closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, and the high yield index has lost 1.84% in September, with rates doing most of the damage and wider spreads adding…

Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL): What Are the Converts Worth Without a Lease?

A closer look at KEEL’s beaten-down converts, the odds of a Panther Creek lease, and what bondholders own if it never comes.

Thu Sep 24, 5:08 PM ET#38 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Will they announce a deal? Every Bitcoin miner trying to reinvent themselves as an AI/HPC data center developer gets asked that question. And every one of them has the same pitch. We have the sites, we have the power, we are in discussions with prospective tenants. And the market is waiting for one thing before it gives them credit for any of it... a tenant’s name on a lease.

Credit Weekly: Who the Hike Hits

AI borrowers are paying more and building anyway. Floating-rate borrowers pay more without raising a dollar.

Sun Sep 20, 6:49 PM ET7 min read#38 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

The Fed hiked. It was the first increase since 2023, the vote was unanimous, and the 25bps move takes the range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Warsh called it removing “a dose of accommodation.” He also said strong growth and the AI buildout’s competition for debt are part of why Treasury yields are up. The 10-year is at its highest level since 2007. So what happens 2 days later?

Gray Media ($GTN): The Last Two Cheap Coupons

Political money, a melting audience, and a capital structure built for 2021

Fri Sep 18, 12:14 PM ET#38 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Gray’s audience is dying. Literally. The people who watch local news at 6pm are in their 60s and 70s. Every year some of them stop watching because they are gone, and the people who would have replaced them get the same information from their phones. The cord cutters take the retrans dollars with them. The advertisers follow the audience.

Credit Weekly: When the Pentagon Becomes the Lender

The proposed Fluidstack loan is a sign the government is willing to change the economics of the buildout. The creditors it helps are not the creditors it hurts.

Sun Sep 13, 3:56 PM ET7 min read#38 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

Brought to you by 9fin The next lender to Fluidstack may be the Pentagon. I’m not kidding. The Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital is reportedly talking about a roughly $5 billion loan to the GPU cloud provider, last valued at about $18 billion . And the money is for domestic supply chain and manufacturing capacity for data center components. It’s under discussion, not signed.

Core Scientific ($CORZ): Is It Cheap After the Selloff?

A credit investor’s take on the contracts, the valuation, and what has to go right.

Sat Sep 12, 4:02 PM ET#38 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Core Scientific is down about 40% from its recent highs. That’s not unusual for an AI stock this summer. What’s unusual is what happened to the company while the shares were falling. It finished building nearly everything it had promised CoreWeave. It signed a second tenant, and the tenant is AMD. Those are the two things a skeptic would have told you a year ago were the whole risk.

Run AMT, Run

Looking Beyond cUHDRS

Tue Sep 29, 1:06 PM ET#41 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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This will be a “best ideas only” bio substack providing actionable, highly digestible and high conviction value to investors focused on quality not quantity. Disclaimer: Nothing in this article (or substack) is considered investment advice and is solely the opinion of the author.

The Market Has a Rule of Its Own

Before the Fed reads the long end as a message, it should identify who is speaking

by Michael W. GreenSun Sep 20, 8:21 AM ET10 min read#43 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

To my readers: We’ll return to the philosophical next week. But Wednesday’s Fed decision to hike—and, more importantly, the explanation for why—requires a detour into Bondville. This note is written BOTH for you and for policy makers. I’ll attempt to summarize as plainly as possible, but there will be technical terms and details.

The Machine Never Releases

What happens when the past can no longer become the past?

by Michael W. GreenSun Sep 13, 8:38 AM ET#43 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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"The past is never dead. It's not even past. All of us labor in webs spun long before we were born, webs of heredity and environment, of desire and consequence, of history and eternity." — William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun I ended The Quiet Turning with a qualified sentence: “Preserve room for forgiveness and context, because a society that remembers everything without understanding anything…

Bowman Tightens Fed Board’s Grip on Supervision

Also, Supreme Court signals support for Intel in key case over alternative assets in retirement plans

by Robert SchmidtTue Oct 6, 7:27 PM ET#44 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Michelle Bowman has spent the bulk of her tenure focused on scaling back bank regulations. Now she’s moving to an even more difficult task. “Today, we begin to restructure the Federal Reserve’s supervision function,” the vice chair announced at a community banking conference in St. Louis. Lamenting what she called “longstanding issues embedded in our ins… Read more

Selig Floats ‘Federal Option’ for Crypto Exchanges

Also, banking trade group’s lawsuit targets OCC’s push on trust charters

by Robert SchmidtMon Oct 5, 7:40 PM ET#44 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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With Congress unable to get the Clarity Act over the finish line, Mike Selig is now moving on his own. Today, the CFTC chairman laid out a plan for allowing digital asset exchanges to come under the agency’s oversight with a streamlined set of requirements. The effort seeks to advance a core goal of the market structure bill – bringing crypto trading und… Read more

A Target of the CRA Revamp Finds a Lot Not to Like

Also, Hester Peirce exit interview

by Robert SchmidtFri Oct 2, 7:41 PM ET#44 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Friday Q and A : When the FDIC and OCC unveiled their overhaul of Community Reinvestment Act rules this summer, the plan contained a surprising twist. As expected, it gives banks a lot more flexibility in meeting their obligation to invest in the areas around their branches. But it also adds a new burden: Lenders would have to check that their grants are… Read more

SEC Proposes Easing Crypto Custody Rules for Funds and Investment Advisers

PCAOB beats back a constitutional challenge; FHFA chief tangles with Democrats over inspector general budget

by Robert SchmidtThu Oct 1, 7:58 PM ET#44 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The SEC today issued another crypto-friendly rule proposal, this one designed to remove a barrier that has held back funds and advisers from investing client money in digital assets. The plan aims to modernize custody regulations, an arcane part of the rulebook that poses obstacles for the upstart industry, especially when it comes to newly issued token… Read more

SEC Moves to Open Private Markets to Main Street

Fed watchdog finds no criminal conduct in headquarters renovation; stress test revamp finalized

by Robert SchmidtWed Sep 30, 7:44 PM ET#44 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Paul Atkins ’ push to open private markets took a significant step forward today as the SEC proposed rule changes that could spur asset managers to offer alternative strategies for Main Street. The commission also moved to expand the pool of people who can put their money directly into hedge funds, venture capital and private equity by qualifying as “acc… Read more

Legal Battle Over Sports Event Contracts Heads to Supreme Court

Also, when crypto tweets, the SEC listens; Gould dissents on a living will

by Robert SchmidtTue Sep 29, 8:12 PM ET#44 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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The nationwide legal battle over sports betting on prediction markets is rapidly coming to a head. As of last week, three federal appeals courts have ruled on whether the CFTC or states have the authority to regulate the multibillion-dollar business. Kalshi, the upstart trading platform that is arguing for federal oversight, won in the Third Circuit, wh… Read more

Delivered.

And we are live!

by David CervantesFri Oct 2, 2:46 PM ET2 min read#45 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

In the spring I asked my paid subscribers two questions: what would make Pinebrook indispensable, and would they want a live macro dashboard and a private community. They answered . Then I told them what I heard, and what I’d build. It’s done. And it’s better than I expected. Here’s what they asked for, and what they’re getting. First, the X problem. The private X feed is now dormant.

Market Commentary

How Unusual Was Yesterday's Move?

by David CervantesThu Sep 24, 11:52 AM ET#45 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Word has it that yesterday’s move in 10-year rates was like an earthquake that shook financial markets. Real yields up 13bps (2.63% to 2.76%). Nominal yields up 15bps (4.96% to 5.11%). Sigma-scoring a single day’s move depends heavily on which lookback window supplies the volatility estimate, so the table below runs it four ways.

Signal & Noise Filter

Is the Cruel Summer Over?

by David CervantesWed Sep 23, 8:22 AM ET#45 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Introduction Last week’s FOMC policy rate decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s subsequent press conference are now in the rear-view mirror. After a bit of flirting with near-term volatility, the market has moved on. So should we, after a parsing of the receipts. The pre-summer thesis that led up to the above was laid out back in May, in Cruel Summer , with a projected increase in U.S.

Market Commentary

The Cloud-Shape Problem

by David CervantesTue Sep 15, 3:08 PM ET#45 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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I. Why This is Not a Forecast Historical rate-cycle comparisons work the way cloud-shapes work. Stare at a cloud long enough and it will eventually look like a rabbit or a unicorn. Stare at a rate hiking cycle long enough and you’ll find one that looks like today’s, or the one your imagination prefers. That doesn’t mean today’s cycle is 2004, or 2015, or 2022.

Signal & Noise Filter

Бугимен

by David CervantesSun Sep 13, 4:46 PM ET#45 finance paid leaderboard (rank as of Oct 11, 2026)

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Introduction In the namesake film, John Wick is nicknamed “Baba Yaga”, which the film translates to “boogeyman” from Russian. The film got the translation wrong. In Russian folklore, Baba Yaga is not the boogeyman. Baba Yaga is in fact an eccentric forest witch who lives in a hut.

What the AI boom is doing for Americans

It’s not just “of, by and for oligarchs”.

by Noah SmithMon Oct 5, 4:12 AM ET10 min readFeatured

Paul Krugman is the greatest econ writer in the world, and also a legendary economist. But I sometimes feel that he has a blind spot when it comes to the value of new technologies. In 1998 he famously wrote: The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the…

The second Trump presidency is a world-historic failure

How did Trump fumble so badly?

by Noah SmithSat Oct 3, 4:47 AM ETFeatured

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Photo by The White House via Wikimedia Commons There’s a large market for “Trump is bad” posts. I wrote one of them back in May: It’s easy to tune these posts out, for at least two reasons. One is partisanship — as a reader, I’m sure you know how hard it is to separate “Trump is bad” from “Trump made me mad”.

Roundup #89: It isn’t X, it’s Y

AI risk; Reindustrialization; The rent crisis; AI and jobs; Mass deportation; Chinese investment; Cyber risk

by Noah SmithThu Oct 1, 2:14 AM ET12 min readFeatured

Photo by SK5893 via Wikimedia Commons I’m having a lot of fun writing shorter posts and aggregating interesting items these days. A lot of people are putting out an astonishing amount of good content these days, and sometimes I just want to sit there absorbing it all. 1.

Stop spending money on smaller classes

We’ve spent decades raising teacher quantity when we should have been raising quality.

by Noah SmithMon Sep 28, 6:27 PM ET9 min readFeatured

I’m a little late to this story, but New York Times columnist Nikole Hannah-Jones wrote a very complex and interesting post about sending her daughter to a crappy New York City public school. She was motivated by egalitarian impulses, but it turned out to be bad for her daughter, and later she felt guilty about making her child pay the cost of her own social experiment.

Where’s the “intelligence explosion”?

Ramez Naam gives a skeptic’s take on Recursive Self-Improvement.

by Ramez NaamSun Sep 27, 3:20 AM ET29 min readFeatured

Art by GPT-6 One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, long before other people did.

Four eras of San Francisco tech culture

An anthropological reflection.

by Noah SmithFri Sep 25, 4:29 AM ETFeatured

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Photo by Jack Dorsey via Wikimedia.org The other day I went on the Monitoring the Situation livestream, and we talked about the history of San Francisco tech culture: I’ve never actually worked in the tech industry, but I’ve lived on and off in the Bay Area for a quarter of a century now — including the last 10 years in San Francisco itself — and I’ve spent a lot of that time hanging out with…

Intel Panther Lake Teardown

Looking inside Intel 18A and Intel’s Panther Lake. A free SemiAnalysis STEEL teardown.

by Adith ShankarSat Sep 26, 9:36 AM ETFeatured

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Panther Lake debuts the first commercial implementation of a backside power delivery network (BSPDN), introduces Intel’s first iteration of gate-all-around (GAA) transistors, and showcases their advanced packaging capabilities with its Foveros-S assembly.

The Chinese AI Infrastructure Boom: Introducing the SemiAnalysis China Datacenter Model

1,000+ facilities across 60+ operators mapped, built retail-first and flipped by AI, largest hyperscaler leases 1/5 national capacity, 100MW in 12 months, Eastern Data Western Compute

by EverlynFri Sep 25, 11:58 AM ETFeatured

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China sits at the frontier of the global model race. GLM 5.3 and Kimi K3 are the latest in a run of striking open-weights releases. ByteDance's Doubao serves 345M monthly users as China's ChatGPT, and Seedance is the State-Of-The-Art video generation model.

ClusterMAX 3.0: The Industry Standard GPU Cloud Rating System Returns

In gory detail: reliability, performance, support, pricing—and, of course, security—in our most thorough analysis of GPU cloud providers globally.

by Jordan NanosWed Sep 23, 5:20 PM ETFeatured

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In 8 months since our last major release of ClusterMAX, slavering investors have just about run out of pockets to stuff checks into. GPU supply has gone to zero. Meanwhile, we have been hard at work putting clusters through the ringer. Weeks ago, we teased this report with some R-rated anecdotes from our experiences probing the security practices of neoclouds, eliciting a PSA from a neocloud…

Computation and Data Movement for Inference

Mapping MoE models onto inference hardware: structure, flow, and efficient serving

by Tanj BennettMon Sep 21, 2:14 PM ETFeatured

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Mixture of Experts, now widely used in frontier models, has changed both the structure of serving and the economics of useful inference. It did more than increase parameter count. It changed which tensors are active for each token, what must remain close together, which transfers need strong local bandwidth, which can tolerate a weaker network link, and how memory movement, storage, and…

Engrams Embedding Entendre: Codesign for Efficient DRAM/SSD Offloading

New Model Architecture Implications for TAM of DRAM/NVMe, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, AgentX, InferenceX, NVMe experiments

by Bryan ShanFri Sep 18, 10:34 AM ETFeatured

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Engram extends standard token embeddings with learned multi-token lookups. Recurring local patterns retrieve vectors directly, reducing the need to reconstruct them through attention and feed-forward layers. With Engram model architecture optimization, it allows for lower HBM capacity to be needed for models at the same quality.

Everyone Says Datacenter Moratoriums Are Killing the US Buildout. We disagree

20GW sits inside a restricted local boundary, 1,525MW actually slips, 2.3GW nationwide including New York

by Maya BarkinTue Sep 15, 4:54 PM ETFeatured

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The debate on US datacenters has never been so politically charged. Four states have acted in under two months. New York has stopped issuing environmental permits for datacenters, Texas has paused the next step in its massive ERCOT interconnection queue, Pennsylvania has pulled datacenters out of fast-track permitting and made state permits conditional on new guardrails, and Oregon has frozen…

📈 Monday data: More AI, more justice?

Everyone’s got a lawyer now

by Azeem AzharMon Oct 5, 9:51 AM ETFeatured

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Latest in our AI Investment Brief: An update on AI revenues + what’s happening with AI spending. In England and Wales, 60% of defendants in defended county court claims this year did not have a lawyer . In the US, more than nine in ten consumers sued for debt face the case without one . AI may give some of them a new way to argue their case.

🔮 The transition is hiding in plain sight #604

AI consciousness, electrification’s hidden progress, and the coming agentic bank run++

by Azeem AzharSun Oct 4, 12:07 AM ET4 min readFeatured

Good morning! It’s been a whirlwind week. We had our first look inside a major AI company’s leaked IPO prospectus . Our data appeared in the FT ’s explainer on tokenomics . We are continuing to push hard on untangling this data and more over at our AI Investment Brief by Exponential View .

🔮 Quick weekend reads: the big AI questions

A short set of readings on some of the biggest questions.

by Azeem AzharSat Oct 3, 8:54 AM ET1 min readFeatured

AI is really forcing some big questions into the open. Here are some weekend reads on them. The biggest idea The Economist address the effective altruism (EA) belief system, which it calls “t his century’s biggest idea ”: [P]lenty of EAs in Silicon Valley think that only they can be trusted with the technology. That is an alarming idea.

🚨 The first existential IPO

On the leaked details of Anthropic’s IPO prospectus

by Azeem AzharTue Sep 29, 11:54 AM ETFeatured

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Every technology platform reaches a moment in its lifecycle when startups prepare to enter the public markets. Anthropic seems set to go public first, and yesterday Reuters got hold of a copy of its IPO prospectus, the S-1. We sent an analysis out for readers of the earlier today, sharing some of our forecasts into 2026.

📈 Monday data: Damming the slop floods

AI makes content cheap. Who pays to make it trustworthy?

by Azeem AzharMon Sep 28, 10:38 AM ET3 min readFeatured

There’s a flood of AI content coming down the pipeline across all forms of media. Music, images, LinkedIn posts , longform, and book summaries. As AI output grows, the question becomes: what does a future coexistence with AI-generated content look like? The growth of websites made by AI has been noticeable since 2023. Now every third webpage created has some part attributable to AI .

🔮 The pros and cons of collective AI #603

AGI and new moral subjects; ChatGPT drives a car; energy and AI need each other++

by Azeem AzharSun Sep 27, 12:06 AM ETFeatured

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Happy Sunday! It’s been a busy few days. We launched our AI Investment Brief for people who need to track where the AI economy is moving in detail every week ( EV readers get 50% off during launch week , ie this ends in 24 hours). The Atlantic’s and I had a great discussion about how to think about the AI boom and whether it is a bubble on his show, The Most Interesting Thing in Tech.

[AINews] not much happened today

a quiet day.

Thu Oct 8, 7:29 PM ET26 min readFeatured

More AI safety intrigue in the alignment below. AIE NYC leadership tickets will sell out tomorrow, while for SF folks, AIE CODE applications are still open for the top agentic engineers in the world. AI News for 10/7/2026-10/8/2026. We checked 12 subreddits, 544 Twitters and no further Discords. AINews’ website lets you search all past issues.

[AINews] Claude Haiku 5.5 — better than GPT-6 Luna at the same pricing

yay small models

Thu Oct 8, 3:27 AM ETFeatured

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It’s been about a year since Anthropic shipped Haiku 4.5 , and with successive launches of Sonnet and Opus and Fable up to 5.5 it was seeming a little forgotten, especially as OpenAI launched Luna 6 alongside Astra and Sol 6. Well, it’s here, and it’s a welcome update. More in the summary below. AI News for 10/06/2026-10/7/2026. We checked 12 subreddits, 544 Twitters and no further Discords.

Can a Cloud-Native Harness Make Agents Reliable Beyond the Desktop?

Kubernetes co-creators Craig McLuckie and Joe Beda aim to bring agent harnesses fully into the cloud.

by Richard MacManusWed Oct 7, 10:10 AM ET6 min readFeatured

At a high level, coding agents have a basic architecture: an LLM calls tools in a loop, while carrying forward the required context. Since that’s easiest to implement locally , many coding agents started out as terminal tools and then desktop apps (Claude Code famously began as a CLI tool).

[AINews] Quasi-Riemann-Hypothesis: OpenAI publishes 722 math papers solving 90 of the top 500 open math problems; “the most significant moment” in >100 years of mathematics

Our head hurts.

Wed Oct 7, 12:55 AM ETFeatured

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Tickets for AIE NYC are selling out soon! See you next week! see past AINews issues for subscriber discounts. Pour one out for Mistral, who shipped a decent Large 4 “Le Chonk” model on the new 3800 GB300 cluster funded by their recent Series D . But they were overshadowed by more mathematics results from OpenAI’s internal Navier-Stokes math model - published as a blogpost , repo , and tweet .

[AINews] Reflection Beam - 501B-A23B American Open Model

A small win for US open source

Tue Oct 6, 2:28 AM ETFeatured

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It’s been over a year since Reflection launched with us with big goals on coding (and hinted about their RL approach ): But they stayed “stealth” longer than Thinking Machines and it was not clear we would ever get a model launch out of them, as the broader open model ecosystem did not slow down one bigt for them.

[AINews] not much happened today

a quiet day.

by Latent.SpaceSat Oct 3, 4:45 AM ET24 min readFeatured

If you’re even seeing this, you should probably just go enjoy your weekend. AI News for 10/1/2026-10/2/2026. We checked 12 subreddits, 544 Twitters and no further Discords. AINews’ website lets you search all past issues. As a reminder, AINews is now a section of Latent Space . You can opt in/out of email frequencies!

Why I still haven’t bought into true RSI

An “AI moderate’s” view on recent events and the trajectory of frontier models.

by Nathan LambertSat Sep 19, 11:42 AM ET8 min readFeatured

We’re in an era where a few organizations are using thousands of concurrent agents to improve their processes and output. These organizations happen to be just the frontier AI labs, in particular OpenAI and Anthropic. In the last few weeks, I’ve been pondering what it means for so many employees across these organizations to rapidly update their expectations for the pace of AI progress and…